Business Development Diary

This excellent article in the SJ Mercury News chronicles the death by overdose of the 'Long Tail' concept.

Wired editor in chief Chris Anderson devised the term to explain how the Internet is creating profitable demand for stuff that wouldn't otherwise find a market. In his case, he focused on creative works, such as obscure forms of music or forgotten documentary films. That October 2004 article has since become the single most frequently cited piece in the San Francisco-based magazine's 12-year history.

And now, because "any popular explanatory framework will suffer a semantic death at the hands of marketers, promoters and other hucksters" the new meme "Just say `no' to bogus Long Tail pitches."

Of course, Quorum systems has the answer:

CommsDesign - Merging GSM with WLAN in a mobile handset needn't cause interference: "When GSM is transmitting, the WLAN subsystem can't receive WLAN packets (Fig. 1). Likewise, when GSM is in receive or monitor mode, the WLAN can' transmit, as it will desensitize the GSM receiver. In addition, one radio chain must be turned off while the other transmits, due to interaction between the two transmitters. In most cases, the GSM transmitter will be given precedence and the WLAN transmitter will be disabled, as the existing infrastructure limits any changes to the GSM standard. What results is the need for some type of traffic management, or scheduling within the multi-mode solution. This is often achieved in the upper levels of the architecture. This scheduling, for instance, may exist within the application software or top-level baseband protocol stacks. While the result is a functional multi-mode solution, only one standard is ever instantaneously active at any time. As a consequence, only one of the two existing radio chains would ever be used at one time."

» 17.6 mln WLAN access points were sold on consumer market in 2004 | IT Facts — Your Daily Research Synopsis | ZDNet.com: "The SOHO/consumer AP market will rise from approximately 17.6 mln units in 2004 to roughly 32.6 mln units in 2009, according to InStat. A major story in this market is a key transition from the 802.11g air standard to MIMO-based products. Eventually, while 802.11g will remain throughout the forecast period in very cost-optimized equipment, MIMO/802.11n will become the primary air standard; having a 'universal' air standard is less confusing for consumers and easier to manage for vendors. Shipment volumes for MIMO-based equipment were small in 2004, but at least five vendors have now introduced products, with more expected in 2005. In contrast to the enterprise WLAN market, 802.11a/g equipment is not expected to gain traction in the SOHO/consumer WLAN market."

Hot scoop from Om Malik's Broadband Blog : Yahoo buys Dial Pad!

"Yahoo, like other IM providers might have been late to the VoIP party, but the company is quickly making up for lost time. Barely a month after launching its own VoIP enabled IM beta product, the company snapped up DialPad, a VoIP company that sells PC2PC and PC2Phone services to consumers. “What we saw in DialPad was quick way to add PC2Phone and inbound calls,” says Joanna Stevens, Yahoo’s VP of Corporate Communications. Yahoo will integrate Dialpad’s services with its new IM product.

Dialpad provides Yahoo immediately with a proven platform that delivers least cost routing, the Dialpad engine that routes international traffic and enables termination plus gives them the billing, OSS and capability to make a Pre-Paid offering that terminates and possibly originates PSTN calling. Clearly this means Yahoo is going after the international audience and is looking to go right after Skype.

Business 2.0 :: Online Article :: Wireless Report :: Mobile Search: The Battle Begins: "That's not lost on Yahoo, which has already claimed the pole position. Yahoo's mobile search tools, launched just nine months ago, are already well integrated with its desktop client; users can easily search images, the Web, or local listings. And any preferences, information, or locations a user stores in Yahoo's desktop service will appear on the phone. 'We set up as many shortcuts as possible to give people access to quick bytes of information,' says Yahoo director Thad White. For example, when I used Yahoo's mobile service to search for Starbucks (SBUX) in the 94111 zip code (as if I didn't already know the exact location of every caffeine-dispensing kiosk within eight blocks), I didn't have to enter my address, because I had done so during a previous desktop search on my computer. It's easy to imagine a scenario where Yahoo partners with a carrier like Cingular to bundle its search tool with other mobile services in exchange for a small monthly subscriber fee, much like it already does for SBC's (SBC) DSL service."

Is the telephone industry ready for open source? | Newsmakers | CNET News.com: "Spencer's company makes Asterisk, an open-source application, for the Linux operating system, that's at the heart of many installations of sophisticated corporate phone equipment. The upshot: Gear that typically costs hundreds of thousands of dollars is now available for the price of a laptop."

PC World | Sensor turns cell phones into wireless Web servers: Note the application - yet again wireless location based dating.

The Seattle Times PI article on Dan Hesse, former AWE exec, not on the Sprint PCS/Nextel team.

Noted "opinion for hire" firm Frost & Sullivan offers its musings on cellular/WiFi convergence in this Friday's (6/10) issue of Fierce Wireless. Why is this notable? Frost & Sullivan interest is a leading indicator of mergers & acquisitions frenzy.

Cellular/Wireless Convergence: A Q&A with Frost & Sullivan's Ronald Gruia
The market research analyst sees obstacles and opportunities in an emerging market.

How are carriers addressing cellular/wireless VoIP convergence?

At this point, I think that some of the Tier 1 service providers are a little reluctant. Some of the Tier 1 service providers that I've been talking to are concerned about losing the minutes. They're worried that people who generally talk on a cellular network will eventually shift those minutes off to 802.11 metrics where those minutes will be a lot cheaper.

I think what will eventually happen is that some Tier 2 service provider will probably embrace this dual mode seamless roaming strategy and they'll start offering this. And then the other players will say "Holy smokes, if we don't cannibalize our base, someone else will, so we might as well do it. That way we can retain our customers."

There will definitely be a domino chain, but initially the big players will be only watching from the sidelines. Even when you look at the big announcement with BellSouth and Cingular -- that's really the exception rather than the rule. The disruption will come in from the Tier 2 service providers.

How do you see the market evolving once this occurs?

There will be a shift on the revenues to these companies at first. There will be less revenues on the voice side, but more on the data side, and that's good because that will drive applications growth. And it will ultimately bring more revenue to the carriers. Voice alone is not going to be the big seller.

What about the handsets?

There is an issue of battery life, but it's been somewhat mitigated by Motorola. They have this "Deep Sleep" strategy, which is a way to save on battery consumption.

Also, the device has got to be a smart device. It's got to ask itself, "Am I in an 802.11 environment or a 2.5G or 3G environment?" It's what we call ABC or "Always Best Connected." This means if you've got a strong signal for an 802.11 transmission then, of course, you would rather use this than 3G because it's going to be cheaper. And that's also taking juice.

Now, there are changes you could make to minimize this. You could make these inquiry pings less frequent. Or if you find yourself in an area where 802.11 is not available, you could even shut off this process, because there's no point in continually sensing for an 802.11 network if it's not there.

There are things you can do to minimize that power consumption, but it will take a technological leap to get it down to the same level that you would normally get on a wireless phone.

How will pricing affect the handset market?

Long story short: we need to see more carriers get involved. Once they get involved, then you'll see more volume. We'll get those economies of scale we need to see and that will get the price of the both the handsets and the services down.

Consumers are very price sensitive. In fact, many don't even pay for the cellular phones, the wireless carriers subsidize the cost of the phone with a long term contract. In order for this to become a mass application, pricing will have to come down quite a bit.

Do you feel that cellular and wVoIP convergence is a transitory phase that will eventually lead to an all IP-wireless voice service?

I don't think cellular will be phased out. The traditional networks have been engineered and architected to ensure a certain grade of service. And yes, they may not offer the same 5-nines of reliability of their wireline counterparts, but at the end of the day, they're still far more robust and resilient than an ad-hoc 802.11 network that was added on.

I see 802.11 and WiMax as complementary technologies to 3G. 802.11 is going to be more of a short range type of technology. Perhaps something you would use in a lecture hall -- a professor might want to push you an image so you can see this up close.

Ronald Gruia is program leader of the enterprise communication solutions unit at market research firm Frost & Sullivan.

Ubisense technology is based on RF/ID tags designed to work on the UWB spectrum. Nice diagram.



Ubisense claims that UWB (ultrawideband) technology combines a high level of accuracy with low infrastructure investment. Once installed, Ubisense delivers 15cm 3D accuracy in real-time with the ability to monitor thousands of people and assets.

I still like 802.11 better.

UPSNAP: "“UpSNAP™ is building the first cellular specific directory listings and entertainment platform powered by paid listings and premium services”
Putting as few obstacles between merchants and potential purchasers has historically proved to be highly successful and created several billion-dollar industries.
In the 1980s, the merchant agrees to pay for each call using 1-800 numbers. Toll free 1-800 services have proved to be phenomenally successful, and offer a simple way for consumers to contact merchants at no cost. Merchants would gain awareness of the 1-800 number through paid advertising in Yellow Pages and other media outlets.
In the 1990s, the merchant pays per click. Paid advertising listings have become very successful in an Overture / Google model. For the consumer it’s free.
In the cellular world, all is reversed. The consumer pays for directory assistance per call, from .69 cents to $2.50 per call, while the merchant pays nothing. Imagine how successful Yellow Pages would be if the consumer had to subscribe to the publication every year, rather than having it delivered for free?
Attempts to use WAP based services failed, because they are essentially trying to push an Internet model onto a telephone, creating an awkward technology mix.
For the first time, UpSNAP™ provides the ability to link merchant and consumer in a merchant pays model, using simple natural language text messaging."

HP iPaq h6320 and h6235 launched by Cingular - MobileTracker: "HP iPaq h6320 and h6235 launched by Cingular
Jun 07 2005 - 01:05 AM ET | Cingular

h6320.jpgCingular yesterday launched the HP iPaq h6320/6325, a Windows mobile powered smartphone. While identical in other respects, the h6325 sports a VGA camera. To make things slightly more confusing: the h6320/6325 is a re-branded h6310/6315 which launched on T-Mobile USA last summer.

Features of the handset include:

* WiFi
* Quad-band GSM
* Bluetooth
* Windows Mobile 2003 SE OS
* 3.5' screen with 65K colors

HP is selling the h6320 for $579.00 and the h6325 $599.00."

Search Ad Prices Down 15% In May 2005: "Search Ad Prices Down 15% In May 2005

The average price for search ads dropped sharply last month, according to the latest Keyword Price Index from Fathom Online. The average price paid in May dipped to $1.66, down 15 percent from $1.95 in April.

The mortgage category is most responsible for the plunge, Fathom says. If it weren't included, then the index drop would have been only 3.3 percent. That category in the past has also seemed most responsible for some of the rises.

Given this, the number of categories in the index 'basket' may need to rise, to provide a better overall picture of the search ad price market as a whole. Alternatively, it might make sense to have one index for categories that often see significant changes versus those that fluctuate less often. At the very least, it underscores the fact that the 'average' may bear no relation to what's happening within a specific industry. It's something Fathom says itself, in its latest release:

We should also stress that the pricing fluctuations measured by the KPI in May should be viewed only in the context of the eight categories reported and not as a proxy for the entire search industry.

All categories except automotive saw some degree of drop last month. After mortgages, the investing category has the biggest percent drop and change in amount paid. Other categories saw tiny changes. The chart below gives a per category breakdown:

Category May 2005 / Change From Last Month / Percent Change

Mortgage $4.52 -$1.97 -30%
Broadband $2.02 -$0.07 -3%
Investing $1.81 -$0.22 -11%
Automotive $1.50 $0.10 7%
Consumer Services $1.09 -$0.04 -3%
Wireless $1.00 -$0.01 -1%
Travel/Hospitality $0.87 -$0.05 -6%
Consumer Retail $0.49 -$0.03 -6%
Average $1.66 -$0.29 -1

PlaceSite - Reinventing Wi-Fi Community: "What's this about? Project PlaceSite introduces a new way of using wireless networks -- to create a digital community service by, for and about people who are in the same café together.

Three U.C. Berkeley students are carrying out this research project at a café in Berkeley. We hope that PlaceSite, and projects inspired by PlaceSite, will form an open platform that will enhance community gathering places around the world."

SurfWax: News, Reviews and Articles On Friendster: "While blogs helped grow traffic, Google's (: , , ) AdSense service for startups helped Topix.net make money. Topix.net would not disclose the terms of the deal, only to say that the funding was less than $5 million. Separately, the three newspapers bought 75 percent of the company for a market valuation below $100 million, but north of what venture capitalists valued Friendster, according to someone close to the deal. Friendster was a fast-growing social-networking start-up that received a... (Yahoo Finance -- Printing & Publishing) "

SiliconBeat: Orb Networks a good start: "Orb Networks a good start

orbLogo_02.jpgOur colleague Mike Langberg today takes an even-handed look at Orb Networks, the Emeryville start-up that claims it can connect you to your music, video and other files wirelessly, via any device. Turns out Orb is a good start, but isn't quite ready for most potential customers. It's just the latest example of a Silicon Valley start-up going after what some have summed up as the 'digital living environment,' a broad term that is more accurate than the much-maligned 'digital living room'. Maligned, because much of the living room is now accessible from outside the home. Morgenthaler Ventures led a $4 million investment into Orb Networks, just one in a string of companies Morgenthaler's partner Gary Little has pumped money into as part of the firm's initiative to target such personal technology. Others he's invested in are the file-sharing company SNOCAP, and the stealth file-sharing company imeem.

Others VCs are on the prowl too. Mayfield Fund has just hired a new partner, Raj Kapoor, specifically to exploit opportunities surrounding things like Internet Protocol Television in the home. For example, Kapoor is mulling over a way to deliver a photo viewing application, something akin to a 'family channel', where a family has its own dedicated TV channel to view photos of relatives."