Friday, April 01, 2005
Goldman Scaremongering - Crude at $105/bbl ??
These investment bank analysts are at it again. Goldman Sachs now has "predicted" that the price of crude could spike to $105/bbl. Actually read the report, though, and see how confident they are:
"'Our new $50-$105 per (barrel) super spike range perhaps conservatively corresponds to gasoline spending in the United States that reaches 3.6 percent of forecasted GDP, 5.3 percent of consumer expenditures, and 5.0 percent of personal disposable income."
Bloomberg then quoted the analyst (not the report), saying that
"assuming gasoline spending needs to reach 1970s levels to destroy demand, its upside super-spike estimate would be $135 per barrel for New York crude."
Perfect. So the price of oil could stay the same, or double, or triple, and it's all within their forecast. My read, by the time the analysts are predicting a price run-up, it's time to short.
So I bet a friend that the price of NYMEX crude will be less than $100/bbl this day in 2010. If I win I get paid today's price of an ounce of gold in currency, if I lose I have to deliver an ounce of gold.
"'Our new $50-$105 per (barrel) super spike range perhaps conservatively corresponds to gasoline spending in the United States that reaches 3.6 percent of forecasted GDP, 5.3 percent of consumer expenditures, and 5.0 percent of personal disposable income."
Bloomberg then quoted the analyst (not the report), saying that
"assuming gasoline spending needs to reach 1970s levels to destroy demand, its upside super-spike estimate would be $135 per barrel for New York crude."
Perfect. So the price of oil could stay the same, or double, or triple, and it's all within their forecast. My read, by the time the analysts are predicting a price run-up, it's time to short.
So I bet a friend that the price of NYMEX crude will be less than $100/bbl this day in 2010. If I win I get paid today's price of an ounce of gold in currency, if I lose I have to deliver an ounce of gold.
